The Psychology of Intelligence Analysis: Drivers of Prediction Accuracy in World Politics

This article extends psychological methods and concepts into a domain that is as profoundly consequential as it is poorly understood: intelligence analysis. We report findings from a geopolitical forecasting tournament that assessed the accuracy of more than 150,000 forecasts of 743 participants on 199 events occurring over 2 years. Participants were above average in intelligence and political knowledge relative to the general population. Individual differences in performance emerged, and forecasting skills were surprisingly consistent over time. Key predictors were (a) dispositional variables of cognitive ability, political knowledge, and open-mindedness; (b) situational variables of training in probabilistic reasoning and participation in collaborative teams that shared information and discussed rationales (Mellers, Ungar, et al., 2014); and (c) behavioral variables of deliberation time and frequency of belief updating. We developed a profile of the best forecasters; they were better at inductive reasoning, pattern detection, cognitive flexibility, and open-mindedness. They had greater understanding of geopolitics, training in probabilistic reasoning, and opportunities to succeed in cognitively enriched team environments. Last but not least, they viewed forecasting as a skill that required deliberate practice, sustained effort, and constant monitoring of current affairs

FracPaQ: A MATLAB™ toolbox for the quantification of fracture patterns

The patterns of fractures in deformed rocks are rarely uniform or random. Fracture orientations, sizes, and spatial distributions often exhibit some kind of order. In detail, relationships may exist among the different fracture attributes, e.g. small fractures dominated by one orientation, larger fractures by another. These relationships are important because the mechanical (e.g. strength, anisotropy) and transport (e.g. fluids, heat) properties of rock depend on these fracture attributes and patterns. This paper describes FracPaQ, a new open source, cross-platform toolbox to quantify fracture patterns, including distributions in fracture attributes and their spatial variation. Software has been developed to quantify fracture patterns from 2-D digital images, such as thin section micrographs, geological maps, outcrop or aerial photographs or satellite images. The toolbox comprises a suite of MATLAB™ scripts based on previously published quantitative methods for the analysis of fracture attributes: orientations, lengths, intensity, density and connectivity.An estimate of permeability in 2-D is made using a parallel plate model. The software provides an objective and consistent methodology for quantifying fracture patterns and their variations in 2-D across a wide range of length scales, rock types and tectonic settings. The implemented methods presented are inherently scale independent, and a key task where applicable is analysing and integrating quantitative fracture pattern data from micro-to macro-scales. The toolbox was developed in MATLAB™ and the source code is publicly available on GitHub™ and the Mathworks™ FileExchange. The code runs on any computer with MATLAB installed, including PCs with Microsoft Windows, Apple Macs with Mac OS X, and machines running different flavours of Linux. The application, source code and sample input files are available in open repositories in the hope that other developers and researchers will optimise and extend the functionality for the benefit of the wider community

Pet Ownership and Evacuation Prior to Hurricane Irene

Pet ownership has historically been one of the biggest risk factors for evacuation failure prior to natural disasters. The forced abandonment of pets during Hurricane Katrina in 2005 made national headlines and led to the passage of the Pet Evacuation and Transportation Standards Act (PETS, 2006) which mandated local authorities to plan for companion animal evacuation. Hurricane Irene hit the East Coast of the United States in 2011, providing an excellent opportunity to examine the impact of the PETS legislation on frequency and ease of evacuation among pet owners and non-pet owners. Ninety pet owners and 27 non-pet owners who lived in mandatory evacuation zones completed questionnaires assessing their experiences during the hurricane and symptoms of depression, PTSD, dissociative experiences, and acute stress. Pet ownership was not found to be a statistical risk factor for evacuation failure. However, many pet owners who failed to evacuate continue to cite pet related reasons